Early Away Goals

Somebody introduced me to the Early Away Goals strategy several months ago from the NextBet website.

The basic idea is that if an away team scores in the first 25 minutes of a match, is it highly likely that there will be more goals in that game. At the time of writing this, NextBet have analysed almost 15,000 matches and have the following impressive stats to backup the strategy.

They don’t track every league and I don’t have the exact criteria they use. It’s obviously based 100% on stats but off of thousands of games I believe it’s a great strategy that is proven over and over again. I have used it in the past to do profitable rolling bets, so now I’m going to make my attempts public.

It isn’t always easy to get on the games that show up. After the first goal is scored the odds for over 1.5 goals are often incredibly small, 1.1 for example, and it is often worth waiting until half time to pick a bet. The problem is then that a 2nd goal may have been scored in the first half and you could end up potentially chasing goals in the match. I am guilty of this myself.

Therefore you do need to put some thought into what bet you put on these matches, there is a match preview button you can click on for each game that gives you more detailed stats you can use to better pick a bet but this isn’t always available, when it isn’t I usually check some stats on SofaScore before placing my bet.

You can see my bets below, it’s a slimmed down version of my spreadsheet so if you want to view it in it’s entirety you can do so here.

I’m going to limit myself to 5 bet rollers to start with, banking my original stake as soon as possible. The spreadsheet below will change also as I’m going to officially start this on the 1st of August the bets below are just me warming up. I’m going to start with a £50 bankroll and £1 stakes. I will up the starting stake when my bankroll increases, I just haven’t decided at which point yet.

Bet
Odds
Stake
Result
Return
Bank
Roller Result
Roller Profit
Speranta Nisporeni o2.5 MG1.62£1.00won£1.62 won#REF!
Sao Paulo o2 GL1.48£1.62refund£1.62
Vikingur Olafsvik o3 GL1.30£1.62refund£1.62
Rivers United o3 GL1.93£1.62won£3.12
1.50£3.12won£4.68