It’s now been 8 months since I reviewed HODL. Unfortunately, the service has been on a steady decline since then, providing no profit since January and going on a steep drawdown. I no longer recommend that you sign up to HODL’s service. I have included a graph below to show his complete historical results where you can quite clearly see the decline. Maybe the service will get back to where it was for the 6 months prior to February but at this… I cannot recommend it.
Who is HODL?
HODL is a horse racing service, tipping solely single win bets.
I found HODL a few months ago on Tipstrr, around half way through November 2018. I’m always on the eye out for tipsters that I may want to add to my portfolio or keep an eye on. And HODL caught my eye… maybe it was something to do with the name chosen for the service first!
When I came across this service, HODL had 3 months of results behind him (sidenote: you should always look for historical results when looking at a tipster, and I consider 3 months to be the minimum needed personally) and they were good results at that.
You have to be a bit careful when you look at tipsters on Tipstrr because the default stake is £25 for what they refer to as 10 units (not quite the same as points, more on that later). Not many tipsters (sensible ones, at least) would recommend putting 10 units on each bet, so keep that in mind when looking at anyone on Tipstrr (or anywhere else) if you haven’t customised the settings.
I changed the default to be a maximum of 1 unit per bet to get a more realistic view, let’s take a look:
- August 2018: +29.45u with a 29.0% ROI
- September 2018: +35.16u with a 34.3% ROI
- October 2018: +62.44u with a 43.2% ROI
As you can see, very impressive results. Over 126u in 3 months time. Also make sure you take note of the ROI. Profit is often the first thing people look at, but in my opinion ROI is far more important as it tells you how hard your money has to work for that profit. The higher the ROI, the less you need to spend and the less work your money needs to do.
Just to clear up some possible confusion here… HODL tracks every bet as 1pt, but Tipstrr use a 10-unit based system. For HODL, 1pt is the equivalent of 8 units on Tipstrr. Going forward I will refer to everything in Pt terms.
As stated above, HODL is a horse racing service only. All of the bets are singles, and only on the win market. All of the tips are recorded using 1pt flat stakes. On Tipstrr the bets are tipped as either 0.75pt, 1pt or 1.25pt stakes. Though 1pt is by far the most common, personally I flat stake 1pt as that is how his P/L is tracked and it’s just simpler. In January there were only six 0.75pt and fourteen 1.25pt tips, leaving 111 tips that were tipped as 1pt.
There are an average of 160 bets per month from HODL, and the tips are usually added to the Tipstrr platform between 10am and 12pm everyday (provided there are no issues…). You are likely to have more success with this as bookies are less likely to flag your account for day of race betting than if you were to place the bets the previous evening for example.
Tips are added to the Tipstrr platform as mentioned, and you can get these emailed to you when released or use their mobile app. HODL has also started operating a stand-alone email service if you would prefer to signup directly.
I started betting with HODL towards to end of November as a trial for my own portfolio, but it was on and off. I was given access to follow his tips in January so that I could review the service properly. I have chosen to continue with the service as it ticks all the right boxes for me.
I have tracked HODL‘s January results to the odds they were tipped at, BSP, and also the odds I managed to get on at exchanges as the time I got the tips. I have also analysed the results using Best Odds Guaranteed (BOG) prices as well as the variable staking that is shown on Tipstrr.
Before we get stuck into comparing profit and ROI, the win rate for January was 30.77%, with 130 total bets: 40 won and 89 lost (and 1 was a half win).
Now onto profit & ROI figures, first lets take a look at the baseline which is the 1pt flat staking:
- Tipped Odds
- 48.25 pts
- 37.12% ROI
- 52.96 pts
- 40.74% ROI
- Available at Exchange
- 43.11 pts
- 33.16% ROI
Really impressive profit across all 3 here, with BSP being the highest earner – but these are the results without BOG.
So what affect would variable staking have on these results? Well for January at least, very little. Here is the difference compared to flat staking:
- Tipped Odds
- 49.02 pts (+ 0.77)
- 37.14% ROI (+ 0.02%)
- 52.84 pts (- 0.12)
- 40.03% ROI (- 0.71%)
- Available at Exchange
- 43.90 pts (+ 0.79)
- 33.26% ROI (+ 0.10%)
I’ll stick to flat staking ????
Now let’s take a look at what Best Odds Guaranteed does to the results. Since BOG doesn’t apply to exchange results, we’ll only be taking a look at tipped odds results here.
- Flat Staking & BOG
- 57.25 pts (+ 9)
- 44.04% ROI (+ 6.92%)
- Variable Staking & BOG
- 57.90 pts (+ 8.88)
- 43.86% ROI (+ 6.73%)
Again it’s important to remember that this is just for one month, if BOG consistently earned you around 10pts extra each month, that would add up to quite a fair bit after several months.
Here are the complete statistics for you to compare, including average odds:
Something else that is important to consider when looking at a tipster is their drawdowns. HODL himself states that the service will see regular drawdowns of 15-20 points, with the biggest drawdown since inception being 28 points.
What is a ‘Drawdown’?
A drawdown is the decrease in your bankroll from its high point. So for example if you reached a high point of 30pts with a tipster and they then went on a losing run to 10pts, this would be a 20pt drawdown.
For me personally during January, HODL’s max drawdown was -14.23pts, so this fits into what he says to expect.
It is important to understand drawdowns and to know that they WILL happen and you must expect them. They come hand in hand with betting and you need to make sure your bankroll can take it but most importantly you can take it mentally.
Here is a graph showing HODL’s drawdown, along with the running total and high points to give you a visual aid as to how drawdowns operate:
I’m glad to have done a review of a good tipster!
HODL now has 6 months of solid profitable history behind him. It’s a simple service to follow with tips sent out at the same time every day (if there are any bets, he is also selective which is a good thing) and just 1 type of bet to place.
I’ve also had several discussions with him over Twitter, he’s a nice guy and happy to help or answer any questions followers may have – something else that’s important to look for, as so many out there simply avoid their customers.
- 6 months of profitable P/L that anyone can see
- Easy to follow
- Profitable on exchanges
- Happy to discuss queries and feedback from customers
I would recommend HODL to anyone that asked me.
If you’d like to take a further look at HODL, you can do so by clicking here which will take you to his Tipstrr profile.
Thanks for reading ✌️